The history of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war finds its roots in the late 13th century, when the Ukrainian territory was subjected to violence, bloodshed and vulnerability to foreign dominations and invasions from the Mongols and the Polish and Lithuanian armies. The Soviet leader, Joseph Stalin, orchestrated a widespread famine “Holodomor” (death by hunger) in the 1930s, one of the most tragic man-made disasters in the world history, that starved millions of Ukrainians to death, enkindling their sense of national identity. Ukraine was one of the many countries coerced to fight a harsh civil war before being inducted into the Soviet Union. Post the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation but failed to resolve its internal divisions. While Eastern Ukraine shared strong ties with Russia, the Western part of the nation had been controlled by changing European powers such as Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Religion also played its part since the eastern population is Russian speaking and Orthodox whereas the western population is Ukrainian and Catholic. The country suffered through a tumultuous transition to democracy and capitalism that dampened its development rate.
Although being the world’s largest landmass country, Russia has been grappling with its own border security issues. It lacks natural borders except the Arctic Ocean in North and Pacific in the East. Catherine, the Great, one of the great Russian leaders, famously said, “I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them.” The country had suffered massively due to invasions from its western borders twice – the 1812 attack by the Napoleonic Army and the 1941 attack by the Nazi Germany. After the Second World War, Russia expanded its borders by establishing its control over Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Europe. During the final days of the Soviet Union, the West assured Russia, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) “would not expand an inch to the East”, after which the then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev negotiated to pull back the Soviet Army from East Germany which culminated in the unification of Germany. The West broke its assurances and Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, all become part of NATO. The 1991 collapse of USSR, was its greatest territorial and geopolitical setback of all time, which led to political instability, free-falling economy and diminished global stature.
Crimea, which was then the part of the newly independent Ukraine of 1991, had always been under the strong influence of Russia as it hosted Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The crisis escalated in 2014 when Vladmir Putin captured Crimea and supported separatists in the industrially rich Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk) of eastern Ukraine. The occupation came as a response to the US offering NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia, both Black Sea basins, which are highly critical for Russian national security. Hence, Russia was able to regain strategical control in the Mediterranean region and beyond. On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic as independent states. Three days later, Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine during a televised broadcast, marking the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was internationally condemned, leading to many countries to impose sanctions against Russia and ramping up existing sanctions. The Western nations led by the US along with its Asian allies – Japan, South Korea and Australia, are limiting Russia’s access to money by barring Russia from making debt payments using foreign currency, removal from international financial system called SWIFT to delay payments to Russia for its oil and gas exports, an asset freeze of all Russian banks and banning Russian oil and gas imports. EU and G7 have also instituted a price cap on Russian oil. Other sanctions include a ban on all Russian flights from US, UK, EU and Canadian airspace, an import ban on Russian gold, a ban on the export of luxury goods to Russia. Many international companies have either suspended trading in Russia, or withdrawn altogether. The Arab League, which brings together 22 Arab states have tried to maintain a balanced approach that fails to condemn Russia’s invasion and offers little support to Ukraine. They assess the world as becoming multi-polar, these states depend on both sides for their technology, technical developments, and investments.
With 11 months into the war, India refrains to outrightly condemn the Russian hostility, but it advocates that shedding blood at the cost of innocent lives is not the right way of solving contemporary problems. The principles of Indian diplomacy are fundamentally guided by the belief that democracy, dialogue and diplomacy are the means to resolve all disputes and retain sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. India’s present approach is built on the belief of “national interest.”
S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India, said that, “India’s approach should be guided by our national beliefs and values, our national interest and by a national strategy.” He further adds, “So what should India do in these circumstances? At the time when energy costs have spiked, clearly, we need to ensure that the common person in India is not subject to an additional and unavoidable burden.” This response is shaped by the harsh whirlwind of geopolitical contestations in which India is caught. Russia continues to be India's largest arms supplier even though its share has dropped to 49% from 70% due to India's decision to diversify its portfolio and boost domestic defence manufacturing. India imports 80% of its crude oil, which forms a critical factor of the health of the Indian economy, an economy which is still recuperating from the pandemic. Thus, buying discounted Russian oil is justified as being in the country’s best interests.
The Cold War was a period of immense geopolitical strain between the USSR and the US, with their respective allies after World War 2, that divided the world into two poles dominated by the two superpowers which engaged ideological conflicts between the capitalist US and the communist USSR. The Cold War ended with the collapse of USSR and titling the world’s polarization towards the US. Gradually, the world has turned multipolar since then, with the rise of emerging economic powers like India, China, Australia, and Japan. India is leading the G-20 Summit at a time, when the global order is in a huge flux and institutional mechanisms are left fragile. In 2023, India is assuming the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has strenuous ties with the US. The leadership of two seemingly rival institutions could be an opportunity for India to show the world about the emerging age of multipolarity. India’s proactive diplomacy advocating multipolarity has the potential to explore a peaceful solution to the current crisis. It is the greatest demand of the time to deal with common differences and focus on global challenges that have been exacerbated due to the war.
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